Here we find Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton ahead with an average 6.9 point popular vote lead if it were a two-way race between just her and Republican nominee Donald Trump. In a four-way race including Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein, that lead shrinks to 6 percentage points. Nothing significant - at the moment - if the race were tabulated and completed today. Yet, it could be significant if the race between her and Trump tightens.
Some other notables: Trump can’t seem to break through a consistent average 40 percent ceiling – but, neither can Clinton seem to break through a 50 percent ceiling in most averages. Looking below at sample data provided by YouGov (as an example), Clinton’s lead is sustained by dominance amongst women voters, those between the ages of 18-64, Democrats, Black voters and Latino voters. Still, she’s running a 14 point deficit with Independent voters; despite the narrative or conventional wisdom of massive female support, Trump still commands nearly 40 percent of that vote, with 7 percent undecided. Also: some might find it surprising that Trump boasts 22 percent Latino support. Clinton still enjoys considerable support from Black voters – but, 9 percent, according to YouGov, are still “not sure.”
By Charles Ellison, WEAA National Political Correspondent